Advertisements

Bullish oil signs show Saudi Arabia’s $80 goal within reach

oil_drill_rig_onshore350_51cd332914a52

SINGAPORE (Bloomberg) — While $80 oil seemed in the clouds just a year ago, it now looks primed for capture.

Technical indicators show that the price Saudi Arabia is said to be aiming for may be within reach, with global benchmark Brent crude already above $74/bbl. While futures in London have broken past the 50% Fibonacci re-tracement of the slump from when they were above $100 in mid-2014, another signal shows the rally could persist to the line just under $82.

Recent corrections in Brent have shown prices hit a speed bump only when the reading on its Relative Strength Index climbs to 75, well past the usual overbought signal of 70. With that measure now at about 68, it points to continued support for crude on its way up.

Apart from the technical indicators, investors will also be watching tumbling U.S. petroleum stockpiles, which now stand below their five-year average for the first time since 2014, and record American production. Geopolitical tensions continue to simmer, meanwhile, with U.S. President Donald Trump due to make a decision that could lead to sanctions being re-imposed on OPEC member Iran.

A return of financial and economic restrictions on the Persian Gulf state could remove 500,000 bpd of the country’s crude from global markets, according to one analyst estimate.

Standard

UK: Diesel Cars On The Increase!

Despite the Government’s relentless efforts to dissuade people from driving diesel cars, new statistics from the Department for Transport have shown that their attempts have failed miserably as there are now more diesel cars on the road than ever before.

The data shows that a record number of diesel cars were registered at the end of 2017 with a total of 12.4 million of them being driven on UK roads, which is 308,000 more than in 2016. This suggests that people are not scared by the forthcoming vehicle excise and MOT changes, the toxicity charges in London and are just not ready to give their diesel cars up because the benefits of keeping one outweighs the incentives to switch to lower emitting petrol, hybrid or electric cars.

A record number of diesel cars

The statistics show that 2 out of every 5 of the 31.2 million cars that are on the UK’s roads are diesel cars, which is up 0.5% on the previous year despite there being a 16% drop in new registrations.

This is certainly not a stat that the Government were hoping for as they have been desperately trying to reduce the number of diesel vehicles on the roads over the last 12 months by encouraging people to opt for hybrid or electric models instead.

However, just 45,400 new electric cars were on the road in the last quarter of 2017 which means that the UK roads are home to 272 diesels for every one electric vehicle, which is barely an increase on the number recorded the previous year.

Petrol ownership has also been decreasing, with numbers falling since 2004. The end of 2017 saw 0.3% less petrol cars on the roads than there were at the end of 2016, with 59% of the total number of cars being driven running on petrol.

Why the Government’s plan backfired

For months the Government have been implementing plans to encourage people to buy cleaner cars, such as the new Vehicle Excise Duty making low carbon dioxide producing vehicles more expensive to tax, and surcharges being introduced for driving and parking high polluting cars in Central London.

With so much effort being put into eliminating diesel cars by the Government it may be surprising that there are actually more diesels on the roads now than ever before, but there a number of potential reasons for why this has happened.

Jack Cousens, Head of Roads Policy for the AA, stated that changes made to Vehicle Excise Duty by the Government were counter-intuitive as they have just ended up forcing higher tax bills onto those who would have preferred to buy a cleaner car. Instead, people are keeping hold of their older, more polluting cars which is the complete opposite of what the Government was aiming for.

Another possible deterrent for motorists is that they want to avoid the surcharges that they would face if they bought a new model, so they would prefer to stick with the vehicle that they currently drive.

Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation, summed the situation up well by saying that the Government cannot eliminate diesel cars as quickly as they wanted to due to the fact that they are entrenched in our society, and that it will take years to significantly decrease the number of diesel vehicles on the UK’s roads.

What happens next?

It is argued by some motoring experts that the slump in new diesel car buying is only the beginning of the downward trend in diesel car use and that a small increase in diesel car use before the decline is logical, given the fact that more drivers are keeping hold of existing cars rather than trading up to a new one.

The Government are expected to launch a raft of new measures soon with their national Cleaner Air Initiative, which is likely to contain more limits and taxes on the use of older, high polluting vehicles to get them out of major cities. The measures implemented will start to have an effect and it will fall in 2018. Evidence of this is Jaguar Land Rover’s recent decision to lay off 1,000 staff, which they say is because of the fall in demand for new diesel cars.

Standard

Having been associated with a number of political parties over 20 years, including a decade with the Conservative Party, these days I am largely unmoved by party politics. I have voted Labour, Liberal and Tory at various points and I have found virtue and vice in all three political parties.

At my wedding in 2010, there were members of all three main parties present and we were all united in friendship and love. This is not to say that I never experienced acrimony during my “political” years – politics could be quite rough at times.

Fortunately, I never experienced anything like the behaviour outlined by John Mann MP on account of his support for Israel, although I did receive hate-mail on account of my own pro-Israel writings in a local newspaper. I will never forget the sting of anti-Semitism as I read the warped rantings from Bilbrook (he put his address but not his name!).

Despite other failings, I have never been an Anti-Semite although in my youth I knew one or two. I can find no justification or excuse for anti-Semitism. Experience has taught me that anti-Semitism, as Christopher Hitchens pointed out, is the never-failing sign of a sick and disordered mind. I am happy to say that over subsequent years I have known many Jewish people, as colleagues, mentors and friends.

To me, Judaism is the very manifestation of courage. It took courage to be a Jew in the 11th and 12th Centuries in defiance of the crusaders. It took courage to be a Jew in the 20th Century in defiance of the Nazis. It appears that it will take courage in 21st Century Britain in defiance of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.

I almost hesitate to make such a statement. Yet, as I listen to the reports of John Mann and Luciana Berger, I can draw no other conclusion. Who would have thought that, in 2018, the British Political Party most tainted by anti-Semitism would be Labour?

Quite astounding.