The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll: TRUMP TO WIN!


Hillary Clinton 43.2%

Donald Trump 48.0%

Based on 2,935 respondents As of Nov. 07, 2016

About the Survey✝

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election “Daybreak” Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology.

Comment: Even allowing for the “house bias” towards Trump inherent in the above methodology – the poll almost certainly under-samples previous Democrat voters, we see Trump in contention. To compensate for the “bias”, I have adjusted the above figure to Clinton + 6. Here we see Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie:

Hillary Clinton: 49.2%

Donald Trump: 48%

I have always believed that Trump would face an uphill battle and maintain my view that the demographic changes that have taken place in America make it difficult for a populist conservative candidate to win a Presidential election. That said, the polls are clearly very tight indeed and I would suggest that it is at least feasible that Trump can pull off a victory. Trump would not have been my first choice of candidate but who else among the other lacklustre Republican contenders could have landed the blows upon the odious Hillary Clinton that Donald Trump has? I believe that Trump has grown considerably as a candidate during the campaign. Donald Trump is a fine and honourable man and I hope that he becomes president..

Meanwhile, consider the Clintons: Lying (“I did not have sex with that Woman…”), cheating (deleted E-mails), fouling (paid rabble at Trump rallies) & profiteering (Clinton Foundation and paid speeches). Consider the lunatic foreign policies and the bolstering of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. How anyone can vote for a Clinton is beyond me. Yet they thrive.

I will be cheering on “the Donald” until the bitter end. I am holding a “Trump Party” in any event. If he wins, the party will still be going on Thursday!

These are the swing or Democrat states that Trump must win if he is to have a decisive victory:

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado. These states would be enough and, with the other “Romney” states would give Trump 273 electoral college votes.

Florida would be the cream and would take trump to a decisive 302 votes.

To my friends in the US I say: VOTE TRUMP!


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