An interesting talk on the take up of electric vehicles. However, Tony Seba clearly WANTS electric vehicles to be successful and to supersede fossil-fuel driven cars. This skews his thinking. Talk of electric vehicles being “disrruptive technology” is very seductive.
What Tony Seba doesn’t mention is that electric vehicles were themselves superseded by a “disruptive technology” in the early years of motoring – the internal combustion engine. Decades later, who remembers the Sinclair C7?
Throughout my lifetime, commentators and academics have been predicting that electric vehicles will replace petrol and diesel. It hasn’t happened and I suggest that, government subsidies not withstanding, it is unlikely to happen for the remainder of my lifetime.
There is no mention in the talk about the latest improvements in internal combustion engine technology which could yield up to 50% efficiency improvements over the engines of today.
Tony Seba invokes TESLA several times during his talk, even claiming that one of TESLA’s models is “the best” car ever made. What he doesn’t say is that the car is so good that TESLA barely makes any money at all from it’s sale.
Seba predicts in this video that electric cars will be cheaper than petrol driven engines by 2022 and that this will mark the tipping point in favour of electric cars and, that by 2025, every new vehicle sold in Europe will be electric. 8 years isn’t too long to wait so I am prepared to predict that Seba has got it wrong.
The give away is when Seba starts talking about “free charging” of electric cars at Walmart. Didn’t anyone ever tell him that there is no such thing as “free”? The electric car industry is utterly dependent upon government and other subsidies – it would scarcely exist otherwise.