COMMENT: I have previously calculated the potential value of the Austin Chalk resources as almost equal to Pantheon’s current market cap.
It seems to me that upon the initial discovery in the Eagle Ford Sandstone, the market priced in, not only the success of the VOBM#1 but also on-going success across the entire Eagle Ford acreage. Now with the disappointment of the VOBM#5 and the problems at the VOBM#1, the market has priced in on-going failure across the Eagle Ford acreage.
As Ben Graham pointed out, the market is a manic depressive – extreme in terms of both it’s optimism and pessimism. If we see a decline in the water volume then my view is that the VOBM#5 may produce at a fair rate. I also believe that the operator will successfully side-track the VOBM#1 and that this will be an upper-tier well.
I take on-board concerns about a possible fund-raise and I think that this concern is also reflected in the current share-price.
I have revised my eventual sale target price to £6.56 which accounts for dilution. I know it seems astounding but Jay didn’t flinch when he said in the interview that £3-8 was “in the range” and neither did I. Mine eyes have seen the glory of the Polk & Tyler amplitude maps!