Technical indicators show that the price Saudi Arabia is said to be aiming for may be within reach, with global benchmark Brent crude already above $74/bbl. While futures in London have broken past the 50% Fibonacci re-tracement of the slump from when they were above $100 in mid-2014, another signal shows the rally could persist to the line just under $82.
Recent corrections in Brent have shown prices hit a speed bump only when the reading on its Relative Strength Index climbs to 75, well past the usual overbought signal of 70. With that measure now at about 68, it points to continued support for crude on its way up.
Apart from the technical indicators, investors will also be watching tumbling U.S. petroleum stockpiles, which now stand below their five-year average for the first time since 2014, and record American production. Geopolitical tensions continue to simmer, meanwhile, with U.S. President Donald Trump due to make a decision that could lead to sanctions being re-imposed on OPEC member Iran.
A return of financial and economic restrictions on the Persian Gulf state could remove 500,000 bpd of the country’s crude from global markets, according to one analyst estimate.